In the final days of his position at the top of the Democratic presidential ticket, President Joe Biden insisted he would remain unless polling showed “there’s no way you can win.”
Those polls eventually did show a narrow — if not impossible — path for Biden. By late July, he relented and opened the door for Vice President Kamala Harris to assume the top ticket roll.
Two and a half weeks after the switch, the first public polling to include likely New Mexico voters puts New Mexico solidly back in the Democratic column.
Polling by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, a polling and political strategy firm based in London, of 8,229 likely voters in 10 swing states from Jul. 31-Aug. 2 found Trump leading in 5. But Harris has regained the lead in New Mexico, Minnesota and Arizona and the candidates are tied in two others. The poll was conducted after Trump named Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate but before Harris named Gov. Tim Walz to her VP spot.
The 585 New Mexicans included in the sample preferred Harris over Trump 44% to 37%, according to summaries released by the group on Tuesday. Robert F. Kennedy, who has qualified for New Mexico’s ballot, earned 8% with just 8% of voters remaining undecided.
U.S. Senate polling gives Heinrich edge
The same poll found incumbent Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) leading Republican Nella Dominici by 6-points (40-34%) with 21% of voters still undecided.
A previous poll by Public Policy Polling conducted in June showed Heinrich leading by a similar margin, 47-40% but with only 11% undecided.
Post-debate polling gave Trump opening in NM
At least one poll of New Mexico voters conducted after President Biden’s shocking debate performance showed reliably Democratic New Mexico in play for Republican Donald Trump. U.S. Senator Martin Heinrich and Rep. Gabe Vasquez, both defending Democratic seats on the November ballot, publicly called for Biden to pass the torch in the days after that poll’s release.
Redfield and Wilson conducts weekly political polls in key swing states. The group received a 1.8/3.0 score for reliability from 538 blog at ABC News.
Polling sample too small and I’d like to see the survey methodology. Please not also, that VERY large group of undecideds in the senate race for NEW MEXICO.